1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	343483	ThreeTale	Current	14	8.32	0.00	0.00
			Estimated	500	8.13	6.07	3.39

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
ThreeÐ¢ale is a cooperative adventure game for 3 players who choose their fairytale heroes with stories going way back. Each hero has their asymmetric talents. The gameplay’s a combination of variable player powers in the form of virtues, strategic tile placement and a little bit of dice rolling. As a team, the tree players go through four phases – Prophecy Phase, Past, Present, and Future. In the Prophecy phase, three scenarios of future doom are mystically revealed, holding hints to help the players draft their heroes. In the Past phase, every hero gets the chance to develop their stats and talents to be mighty enough to save the world from eternal doom. The heroes’ miniatures move through the tile-built board, thus collecting Virtues, Shevitsa and Speed cubes. They also enter Battles, complete Quests and collect Treasures and Artifacts by drawing cards. Upon completing the Past Phase, the heroes enter the Present, where it is revealed which of the three prophecies will be fulfilled. Then, the Future comes, knocking on the door. Each Future has its own backstory, inhabitants and win condition. What will it take to save the world? Will you battle a mighty enemy, will you aim to gather lots of precious recourses, or will you simply fight for your own survival? Come and see for yourselves… —description from the designer

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/343483

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to ThreeTale? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to ThreeTale. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to ThreeTale. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	343483	ThreeTale	1.00	0.00	8.32	3.39	14
1	2020	292333	Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition	0.91	5.53	7.11	1.50	35
2	1981	721	Oregon Trail	0.90	5.49	5.40	2.25	46
3	1985	8426	Man to Man	0.87	5.52	6.27	3.00	44
4	1979	5265	Commando	0.86	5.50	5.63	3.47	79
5	1985	724	Chill: Black Morn Manor	0.86	5.59	5.99	2.06	422
6	2020	308652	Age of Dogfights: WW1	0.85	5.59	8.36	2.50	81
7	1980	3036	Kung Fu 2100	0.85	5.53	6.27	1.60	84
8	1966	6638	Fight in the Skies	0.85	5.54	6.74	2.45	67
9	1980	3248	Citadel of Blood	0.84	5.61	6.53	2.39	257
10	1979	3369	John Carter: Warlord of Mars	0.84	5.58	6.60	3.11	167
11	2010	73171	Earth Reborn	0.84	6.85	7.64	3.90	3,307
12	1981	2795	Car Wars	0.83	5.96	6.41	3.10	2,189
13	1989	5875	Last Battle: Twilight – 2000	0.83	5.51	6.09	2.75	63
14	1981	4296	Battles & Leaders: A Game of Tactical Level Combat in the American Civil War 1861-1865	0.83	5.53	6.71	3.25	51
15	2019	281946	Aftermath	0.83	6.36	7.77	2.88	1,244
16	2018	218421	Street Masters	0.83	6.51	8.13	2.85	1,204
17	2019	240271	Core Space	0.83	6.20	8.78	2.96	820
18	2004	10630	Memoir '44	0.83	7.38	7.56	2.27	27,305
19	1993	8316	Over the Reich	0.82	5.66	7.74	3.91	169
20	1992	29026	Ogre Miniatures	0.82	5.61	7.71	2.14	138
21	1982	5011	Monsters of the Midway	0.82	5.50	5.56	2.33	32
22	1978	6687	Lords Of The Middle Sea	0.82	5.51	6.00	2.40	33
23	1983	508	Blue Max	0.82	5.99	7.14	2.28	814
24	1979	3625	DeathMaze	0.81	5.54	5.99	1.69	248
25	1977	1035	Squad Leader	0.81	6.73	7.53	4.04	3,272

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to ThreeTale while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	343483	ThreeTale	0.00	1.00	0.00	8.32	3.39	14
1	2019	266507	Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated	6.29	0.80	7.88	8.66	2.70	5,721
2	2014	164153	Star Wars: Imperial Assault	6.23	0.81	7.71	7.99	3.30	22,290
3	2004	10630	Memoir '44	6.10	0.83	7.38	7.56	2.27	27,305
4	2012	104162	Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition)	6.01	0.81	7.40	7.66	3.21	23,953
5	2019	276025	Maracaibo	5.84	0.75	7.78	8.17	3.89	11,683
6	2010	73171	Earth Reborn	5.76	0.84	6.85	7.64	3.90	3,307
7	2012	121921	Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island	5.59	0.73	7.64	7.81	3.80	38,200
8	2014	157354	Five Tribes	5.53	0.72	7.64	7.78	2.85	35,899
9	1985	243	Advanced Squad Leader	5.47	0.78	7.06	8.00	4.74	3,640
10	1977	1035	Squad Leader	5.47	0.81	6.73	7.53	4.04	3,272
11	2018	218421	Street Masters	5.42	0.83	6.51	8.13	2.85	1,204
12	2014	155068	Arcadia Quest	5.34	0.74	7.26	7.67	2.53	9,744
13	2017	179803	Arcadia Quest: Inferno	5.32	0.79	6.77	7.95	2.39	2,145
14	2019	281946	Aftermath	5.30	0.83	6.36	7.77	2.88	1,244
15	1989	699	HeroQuest	5.20	0.76	6.81	7.16	2.15	11,893
16	2019	240271	Core Space	5.16	0.83	6.20	8.78	2.96	820
17	2020	292333	Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition	5.05	0.91	5.53	7.11	1.50	35
18	1981	2795	Car Wars	4.97	0.83	5.96	6.41	3.10	2,189
19	1981	721	Oregon Trail	4.97	0.90	5.49	5.40	2.25	46
20	2019	285984	Last Bastion	4.92	0.74	6.66	7.58	2.56	2,403
21	1983	508	Blue Max	4.89	0.82	5.99	7.14	2.28	814
22	1985	8426	Man to Man	4.82	0.87	5.52	6.27	3.00	44
23	1985	724	Chill: Black Morn Manor	4.78	0.86	5.59	5.99	2.06	422
24	2020	308652	Age of Dogfights: WW1	4.77	0.85	5.59	8.36	2.50	81
25	1979	5265	Commando	4.75	0.86	5.50	5.63	3.47	79

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	343483	ThreeTale	Boarderia	Hristo Yordanov	Liliya Ivanova	Adventure	Admin: Upcoming Releases	Cooperative Game
					Mihail Topalov	Miniatures	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Dice Rolling
						Mythology		End Game Bonuses
								Events
								Grid Movement
								Modular Board
								Movement Points
								Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game
								Square Grid
								Tech Trees / Tech Tracks
								Tile Placement
								Variable Player Powers
								Variable Set-up

Individual Game Analysis